When news broke that ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had found asylum in Russia, the world barely blinked—it was a move straight out of the geopolitical playbook. Now, with Israeli and American troops pouring into Syria under the banner of “stabilization,” it feels like a high stakes rerun of roles global powers have rehearsed for decades. But how did we arrive at this critical juncture? And what might come next in this evolving drama? Let’s unravel the story behind the headlines and explore the paths this crisis could take.
The Conflict in Syria: How We Got Here and What’s Next
The Syrian Civil War, born out of the 2011 Arab Spring protests, has become one of the 21st century’s most devastating and intricate conflicts. What began as a cry for democratic reform spiraled into a catastrophic war that redefined Syria’s fate. Bashar al-Assad’s regime, bolstered by ground support from Iran and Hezbollah and airpower from Russia, clung to power with iron determination.
Opposing Assad were a mosaic of groups, united only in their drive to end his reign. By 2014, however, the U.S.-led coalition intervened—not against Assad, but to combat the rise of extremist groups like ISIS. Partnering with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the coalition focused on reclaiming ISIS-held territories. A fragile ceasefire between Russia and Turkey in 2020 offered temporary relief in certain regions. Yet, in 2024, a renewed rebel offensive shattered the uneasy quiet, capturing key areas in Hama and Aleppo and advancing toward Damascus. Syria’s battlefield was redefined once again.
Why Are the Rebels Acting Now?
Timing is everything in war, and the rebels chose their moment carefully. Assad’s strongest allies face their own crises:
- Russia: Preoccupied with its prolonged conflict in Ukraine, Moscow’s military capacity is stretched thin.
- Iran and Hezbollah: Entangled in escalating hostilities with Israel, both are too distracted to prioritize Syria.
With Assad’s backers mired in other conflicts, the rebels seized an opportunity to push forward.
What Happens After Assad?
Removing Assad may feel like a victory, but it’s far from a solution. Without a common enemy, Syria’s opposition factions face the daunting task of filling the power vacuum. What comes next is uncertain, but several scenarios loom large:
- Fragmented Factional Control: Syria could split into territories dominated by different groups:
- Kurdish-led regions in the northeast.
- Turkish-backed zones in the northwest.
- Islamist factions controlling isolated areas.
- Pro-Iranian militias asserting dominance in the south and central regions.
- Decentralized Federal System: A fragile power-sharing agreement along ethnoreligious lines might emerge:
- Kurdish autonomy akin to Iraq’s Kurdistan.
- Sunni Arab-majority regions with limited central oversight.
- Minority protections for Christians and Alawites.
- External Actor Paternalism: Regional and global powers could carve Syria into spheres of influence:
- Turkey solidifying its northern buffer zone.
- Iran extending its influence over Damascus and southern Syria.
- Russia maintaining control over strategic military bases.
- The U.S. safeguarding areas previously under ISIS control.
- Democratic Transition/International Trusteeship: An UN-led initiative might attempt to guide Syria toward democracy. However, entrenched rivalries among Security Council members could turn Syria into a geopolitical chessboard.
- Extremism Resurgence: Even amid other outcomes, extremist groups like ISIS and HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) could exploit chaos to regain strength.
- Regional Proxy War Escalation: Assad’s fall could amplify rivalries between powers like Turkey, Iran, and Israel, making Syria a battlefield for competing interests.
Why the World Should Care
Syria’s fate is not just a regional issue—it reverberates globally. Here’s why it matters:
- Regional Stability and Geopolitical Rivalries: The balance of power in the Middle East hinges on Syria’s future. Unchecked proxy conflicts could destabilize neighboring countries.
- Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis: Millions of displaced Syrians strain host nations like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, while reshaping asylum policies in Europe and North America.
- Export of Extremism: Returning foreign fighters bring radical ideologies and networks, posing security threats far beyond Syria.
- Erosion of Global Norms: The international community’s failure to act undermines trust in global governance and raises questions about the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine.
- Energy Markets and Reconstruction: Control over Syria’s future could influence oil and gas pipeline routes, while reconstruction efforts—estimated to cost $200-300 billion—may spark geopolitical competition involving China, Russia, the U.S., and Iran.
Syria’s Fragile Future
As the dust settles on Assad’s departure, one thing is clear: the road ahead for Syria is perilous and uncertain. The choices made by internal factions, external powers, and the international community will shape not only Syria’s destiny but the broader geopolitical landscape. For Syria’s people, the dream of stability and self-determination remains distant but not impossible.
In this evolving crisis, global leaders and citizens must rally behind the principles of peace, justice, and humanity. Syria deserves more than to be a pawn in a game of power—it deserves a future shaped by and for its own people.